I’ve been wanting to write a piece about the Saints’ center position for a while now. If you read The BoiLa last year, you’ll remember how Jonathan Goodwin’s predominantly sub-par grades provided a rare example of consistency in what was an all too inconsistent season. We questioned Goodwin’s position as starter, even more so after Tim Lelito impressed whilst deputizing in Weeks 8 and 9. However, Goodwin returned, and generally speaking, so did the mediocrity in the middle (and beyond).
It frustrated us plenty – so much so it’s driven me to revisit all of our player grades for Goodwin/Lelito in 2014, comparing them with the corresponding week’s result and offensive production. Were the Saints more likely to win when the center graded out positively? Did New Orleans run at a lower YPC when the center graded out negatively? That sort of thing was what I was looking at. Essentially, I wanted to see whether improving the level of player at the center position (say by replacing your center with the highly-regarded Max Unger) would actually have a tangible effect on results based on what we saw last season? It turns out it would – and thus this article was born. Read on to find out all about our “new found” appreciation of the center position.
To kick things off I collated all our grading data for centers from last season, and then compared these against the most rudimentary performance barometer, the outcome of the game. The results can be found below:
[Click image to enlarge]
To briefly summarize what you’re looking at above, the Saints went 6-2 (.750) when the center graded out at average or above. In contrast, the Saints went 1-7 (.125) when we had the center grading out negatively. Going by those figures, if Goodwin had simply kept his grades at average or above every week last season, New Orleans would have finished 12-4.
Of course, it’s not as simple as that. We’ll never know whether the balance would’ve been tipped in New Orleans’ favor had Goodwin played better in those eight games where he received “bad” or “fairly bad” designations. However, it’s undoubtedly food for thought – and it also goes some way to help rationalize the reasoning behind why Payton was willing to trade Jimmy Graham away in the process of securing a new anchor for his offensive line.
Going back to the data, it’s also worth noting the effect of the center’s grade didn’t just stop at winning or losing. I decided to compare Goodwin/Lelito’s grades against other measures of offensive production. Again, the results were telling. The Saints offense averaged over 7 points more per game when the center graded out average or above. (28.9 compared to just 21.1 when centers graded “fairly bad” or “bad”) That’s an extra touchdown per game. While on the ground, when the center graded out positively the Saints averaged over 29 yards per game more, at nearly 0.4 more yards per carry, than in games where the center received a negative grade.
Center of attention
When you take into account the grades and numbers above mentioned above, you can see why there was almost a sense of relief around The BoiLa when the Saints appeared to be making no noise in relation to bringing “Goody” back for one last hurrah in 2015. Unfortunately for Goodwin, it had become regrettably evident that the aging center was now a shadow of the player that had spent three seasons successfully anchoring the Saints offensive line during his previous spell in New Orleans.
Goodwin still displayed quick feet and better-than-average speed for a center his age, but he was all too often weak at the point of attack, over-powered by tackles who were being dealt with elsewhere with relative ease. Mentally he was showing lapses as well, with his failure to correctly identify A-gap blitzes becoming something we would pick up more and more on throughout the season. Such shortcomings were patently hurting the offense, and it seemed inevitable a move had to be made to address this during the off season.
So the question was poised; who’s going be the Saints center in 2015? Lelito was certainly an option, but having witnessed Payton’s unwillingness to promote the converted guard into a starting role last season, you got the feeling he wasn’t seen as the long-term answer. In the build up to Free Agency, we briefly switched our attention to pondering who may be a “viable-yet-cap-friendly” option to fill that 300 lb hole? The pickings looked slim, however. The Saints appeared priced out the market in regards to contending for top, young talents such as Rodney Hudson or Stefan Wisniewski. Picking up an aging vet such as Nick Hardwick or Chris Myers would simply start the Kreutz/Goodwin alarm bells ringing all over again, whilst there was even talk that Kreutz’s usurper back in 2011, the newly unattached Brian De La Puente, could be targeted for a potential return to the Black and Gold.
In summary, there were more questions then answers regarding the free agent centers available. Furthermore, with the purse-strings “Loomis tight”, some were already looking towards the draft as a more realistic option for the Saints to address what we saw as a pressing need.
That was until about 2pm on March 10th.
“Jimmy’s been traded”…
“Where?”
“The Seahawks”.
“Urgh”.
We won’t dwell on that. We will dwell, however, on the player the Seahawks sent one a one-way ticket towards the Gulf Coast; 29 year-old center Max Unger. Having been so concerned with the Saints center position throughout last season, the news that we’d picked up Unger at least helped soften the blow created by the realization that Graham would now be doing celebratory lay-ups to the cacophony of artificially pumped in cheers that’s more commonly referred to as the “12th Man”. With Unger going into the fourth year of a $26 million contract, and no mention made of him as potential trade bait, I hadn’t even considered him an option for the Saints offensive line. What I did know, however, was that for the past four seasons Unger had been the starting center on a Championship caliber O-Line. And one that prided itself on physical, run first football to boot. Was Unger carried by the rest of that line though? Is he injury prone? Is he a consistent performer? It was time to look a little deeper into Unger’s on-field history.
Who is Max Unger and why can he make such a difference?
Unger is a 29 year-old, 305 lb, two time Pro Bowl center out of the University of Oregon. The Ducks lineman was drafted as a guard back in 2009…
(OK… I won’t bore you anymore with these details I’m just lifting from Wikipedia)
Something that I’m hoping will prove more useful and informative than the obligatory “cut-and-paste job” however is supplying a brief synopsis of Unger’s performances and player grades over the past few seasons (credit to Pro Football Focus‘ epic Player Grades Archive for making this possible). Starting in 2011, when Unger took over the starting center spot in Seattle, he was instantly consistent. He only dropped “into the red” (PFF’s equivalent of our below average grades) on three of 15 starts. In 2012 he graded out even better, receiving a positive grade in 15 of the 18 starts he made on the way to ranking as the 3rd best center in the NFL in terms of his cumulative grade. 2013 appears a slight down year, with Unger struggling for consistency during Seattle’s championship run. However, the center put to rest any fears of a prolonged slump with a bounceback effort during last year’s campaign.
Despite an injury-plagued 2014 for the Hawaiian-born center, Unger still did enough to rank as Seattle’s top offensive lineman, and indeed the 4th best performing center in the NFL according to PFF. Delving even deeper and looking at the individual game breakdowns, even more encouraging for us was the consistency shown by Unger in 2011 and 2012 was back. The guys over at Pro Football Focus only graded Unger negatively in two of nine starts (22%). In contrast, last season we had Goodwin grading out negatively in eight of 14 (58%), with the Saints going 1-7 in those eight. It’s plain to see the Saints needed a more consistent center, and on paper at least, it looks as if Payton and Co have landed the ideal candidate in Max Unger.
If the reports out of camp are anything to go by, it sounds like Unger has hit the ground running, showing no signs of the injuries that disrupted him some 10 months ago. Pre-season will give us a brief opportunity to see this all for ourselves, although the real acid test won’t begin until the offensive line takes to the field in Phoenix come Week 1. One thing is for sure though, if the former Seahawk performs anything like he has done for the majority of his NFL career, we’re very excited for the positive impact this will have. It should make a difference to not just Jahri Evans and Lelito alongside him, but also Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson and CJ Spiller behind him. It may sound a reach to be put such emphasis on the importance of a high-performing center in these days of skill position domination, but we really do feel that Unger is the catalyst that will reignite this New Orleans Saints offense.
——————————–
Will the Saints D be better up front in 2015?
Want to get a heads up on our content as soon as it’s posted? The be sure to either follow us on Twitter: @CrAwFiShBoiLa, or simply subscribe to The BoiLa by e-mail on this page right now.
The CrAwFiSh BoiLa 